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Tickets were $1 each. A computer program randomly matched each ticket
number with a unique and precise finishing time.
This year's winning time of 3:22:52
is paired with 144 inches,
the maximum snow depth at the
summit of Lookout Pass Ski Area during the 2016/2017 ski season.
Linear regression of the value pairs from
the previous 15 years, yields this equation:
winning time = -64.921*(max snow depth) + 23646
winning time = -64.921*(144) + 23646
winning time = 14297 seconds = 3 hours, 58 minutes.
This predicted time is 35 minutes away from the actual 3 hours, 23 minutes
race time. Last year my predicted time was 16 minutes away from the actual time.
In both years, the R-squared of the trend line was 0.70, meaning 70% of the
varience in the data was described by the straight line equation.
The orange squares on the chart are data points tied to snow depths
on Presidents Day each season at
Lookout Pass Ski Area.
The R-squared value of 65% shows this to be a less certain prediction tool.
This is a fun example of faux-science, in that there is always
a random amount of time spent rescuing the ball from obstacles
and whirlpools. Human-Ball interactions cannot always be predicted.
However, this summer there was another factor: an unusual and huge amount
of spring rainfall as shown the Natural Resources Conservation Service's
water year graph on July 12, 2017.
We have had TEN INCHES MORE RAIN THIS YEAR than normal.
So of course statistics based on previous normal rain years go out the window!
Click on the image to see current data in separate window.
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